Does the Northern Nevada Market Show Signs of Thawing?

As the weather chills back up, I am looking at the open escrows on my desk and wondering if the rumors are true—is the market really starting to heat up? 

 

I have run the numbers, but unless you know a little bit about recent market histories and how to interpret what the media has been spoon feeding everyone at the water cooler, we don’t really have a good place to start. 

 

To begin with, there is no doubting that less homes sold in 2006 than we would have liked.  There has been a lot of press about homes being overpriced and sellers needing to come to their senses.  The funny thing about a declining market is that sellers are smarter than we give them credit for.  Owners are less likely to “test the market” with an overpriced home that will never sell if buyers aren’t biting.  The owners that were motivated enough to price a property to move fell into the lucky category of “sold”  last year.

 

Inside this issue, I have included the county wide statistics—the stats that you have been reading about in the newspaper and hearing about on t.v. and the radio.  The graph below shows a different point of view—that of only Reno and Sparks.  If you remove the outlying areas where prices have dropped and market time has skyrocketed, the numbers are a little less scary.  When I started narrowing the search for myself, I discovered another scary thing—these numbers are pretty interpretive.  The wider the net, the scarier the numbers.  This is a phenomenon that was predictable and that we should have been prepared for.  When the local market caught on fire in 1999 buyers were priced out of ownership.  Since demand wasn’t decreasing as fast as prices were rising, buyers were forced to go outside their comfort zone in order to buy a piece of the American Dream.  Home prices in outlying areas enjoyed a rapid increase in value because they were the only affordable options left.  Builders continued to build in those areas until the demand was met. 

 

Recently, all of those buyers have jumped in to capitalize on their equity flooding those markets and dragging the stats down for everyone.  The first time buyers that should have filled those homes were scared off by some bad press.

created: Aug 21 2007
What in the World is Froth

(this is from a newsletter that I sent in the fall--in case you aren't lucky enough to get the junk that I sent out)

Last Spring, Greenspan was all excited about the “froth” in the real estate market. As the researcher you guys know that I am, I cannot get enough to read about the market and the economics behind it. Here’s what I have learned so far about bubbles—the great big scary kind and the little café latte kind. . .

 

If the population of an area is increasing, the demand for housing will mirror the population growth rate.
Meadows area has historically enjoyed (ha ha, enjoyed) a growth rate of approximately 7,250 people per year. In recent history, that growth has increased to 11,000 people each year. Check out the chart—

Even if the population growth rate slows to what it has historically been, we will still continue to enjoy a growth rate well above the national average.

 

Although supply has been more generous than we would like, the demand for homes in

 

 

 

the Reno/Sparks area has stayed relatively consistent. This graph was prepared by a local title company and incorporates new and existing re-sale home sales. If shows that although the trend line isn’t the apex that we would all like to see, home sales are working on stabilizing. We might have to get used to the current pricing structures, though which take new home prices into account when pricing pre-owned ones.

People are still out there buying, just not as many as before.

 

Does it seem like almost 1000 homes sold in July? How about 1200 in June? No matter what you hear from the crabbies in the supermarket, homes are still selling. They aren’t bringing last year’s prices, but they are still selling. In my next note, I will break down some of the different areas in town and let you know where prices were last year and where they are now.

 

Until next time.


created: Aug 21 2007
An Author Who Has Never Met Me!!!

Highly, highly, highly recommend Freakonimics  a very strong book about phenomena ranging from crime rates to school testing, sumo wrestling, why drug dealers live with their mothers and, you guessed it, REAL ESTATE.  I think that it is a telling book.  People hate us.  Not as much as you would believe from the Series of Unfortunate Events books, but enough to be noteworthy.  Hee.  Hee.

 The book states that real estate agents wait longer and get more money for their own personal homes than their seller's homes.  Hmmmmm.  We will have to see.  I just put my own home on the market and I can't wait to see what I have to talk my husband into.  The strange difference is that, as a real estate agent, I have seen the competition and I make sure to beat it.  I actually made my husband change all of the doorknobs and hinges in the entire house last weekend--I have noticed that homes with oil rubbed bronze trim sell faster than the competition.  You never know.  Only time will tell. 


created: Aug 21 2007
What Should We do if We are Upside Down in Our House

If you read this question in Nevada Home, the black text is old news.  Scroll down to the blue text to see what the editor cut. . .

Well, as they say, “knowing is half the battle.” It is not just the folks that bought at the top of the market with 100% financing that are finding themselves in this bind nowadays.  Local homeowners that refinanced with the use of a less than conservative appraisal, originally financed or refinanced into a negative amortization (pick a payment) loan, or bought in a subdivision and opted for no feature upgrades (before builders started giving away everything under the sun) are unhappily lining up to jump in this boat too. 

The question begs another—are you planning on going anywhere?  If you are not moving anytime soon, you don’t need to do anything about being upside down in your home because the market will eventually equalize and you will be fine.  Real estate is best considered a long term investment.

Maybe it is a time to re-evaluate your home and what you are doing to help keep its value strong.  Find small ways to improve the curb appeal, storage, kitchens and bathrooms.  In a tough market, keeping up with the Joneses isn’t just suburban warfare, it is a necessary evil except this year, let’s fight smarter—when your neighbor buys an RV, you should put new solid surface countertops in your kitchen and baths.  When they buy a car, you should put in hardwood flooring and a new tree.

Frequently, conservative homeowners will ask whether making additional principal payments will help them compensate and equalize their equity in this market.  You should consult your investment professional, but sinking additional capital into an investment that has been beating you up seems silly to me.  Why not invest your funds elsewhere so that you have access to them in order to make your real estate investment liquid if the time to sell comes sooner than you expected?  I’m gonna get some cranky phone calls about that statement, but your real estate is just part of your total wealth portfolio. 

If your loan is less than conservative (negative amortization, unreasonable arm, etc.), you might consider refinancing or paying additional principal.  If you are interested in re-financing, I have found that starting with the lending professional that helped you with your loan in the first place might be helpful.  They know you and your credit situation and may be willing to help find ways to reduce costs since you are a repeat client.

How do you know if you refinanced with a less than conservative appraisal?  Well, for starters, if you told the appraiser what you were hoping your home would appraise for and it came in pretty close to that, you might worry a little.  Honestly, if you asked a six year old in their heart of hearts what they dreamed of for a birthday party and that was exactly what they got, you would be in Beverly Hills.  We are not in Southern California-- I know that we convinced ourselves we were for a while there but there is a lot of land in Northern Nevada and very little of it is more or less desirable than the rest.  Home prices will only rise so high before it becomes cheaper to buy land and build--this places a limit on our appreciation for average single family homes.  Log on to zillow.com and see what your home would sell for.  Then subtract another three percent.  Truly.  Pricing analysis in a  declining market that is any older than 30 days is inaccurate. 

 

Remember that, when you are calculating what your home is worth, you should subtract 8-9% of the sales price for closing costs--more for homes under $400,000 where new home subdivisions are creating competition that is forcing resale homes to give closing cost and down payment incentives.  Smart owners rarely borrow in excess of 90% of their home's value.  When you owe more than the home is worth, it is not a liquid asset.  Without liquidity, your home is not an asset, it is actually just an expense. 

 

If you are forced to sell and are upside down, you will either have to come to the closing table with the difference or try to negotiate a short sale with the bank.  There are a couple of different ways that this will play out, but that is a different entry.  Check under Home Sellers title Short Sales--why they suck.   


created: Aug 21 2007

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